|
|
Prediction for CME (2024-05-01T06:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-05-01T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30362/-1 CME Note: Wide bulb-like CME with a clear bulk and a wider shock. Its source is an eruption starting after 2024-05-01T05:50Z seen in AIA 304 and 193 as a large size dimming centered around ~S20W65, an opening of field lines seen in AIA 193/171 to the south of AR 3654. There might be an EUV wave with this eruption but it is not easily discernible in AIA 193: there is an isolated less deep dimming around S20W35 in AIA 193 and especially AIA 335 but it is unclear whether this a separate sympathetic eruption. No clear arrival signature has been found in the solar wind data. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-04T19:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-01T17:52Z Radial velocity (km/s): 585 Longitude (deg): 37W Latitude (deg): 20S Half-angular width (deg): 41 Notes: Second of two CMEs assessed from filament eruption. Moderate confidence in fit. Space weather advisor: CLLead Time: 61.00 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-02T06:00Z |
|
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers. Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement |