CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-01T06:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-01T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30362/-1
CME Note: Wide bulb-like CME with a clear bulk and a wider shock. Its source is an eruption starting after 2024-05-01T05:50Z seen in AIA 304 and 193 as a large size dimming centered around ~S20W65, an opening of field lines seen in AIA 193/171 to the south of AR 3654. There might be an EUV wave with this eruption but it is not easily discernible in AIA 193: there is an isolated less deep dimming around S20W35 in AIA 193 and especially AIA 335 but it is unclear whether this a separate sympathetic eruption. No clear arrival signature has been found in the solar wind data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-04T19:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-01T17:52Z Radial velocity (km/s): 585 Longitude (deg): 37W Latitude (deg): 20S Half-angular width (deg): 41 Notes: Second of two CMEs assessed from filament eruption. Moderate confidence in fit. Space weather advisor: CLLead Time: 61.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-02T06:00Z
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